Uncertainty sensitivity assessment on the optimization of the design and operation of complex energy systems: two complementary approaches

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Paper number

877

Working Group Number

Conference name

CIRED 2019

Conference date

3-6 June 2019

Conference location

Madrid, Spain

Peer-reviewed

Yes

Short title

Convener

Authors

Nadal, Amélia, Univ. Grenoble Alpes- CEA- LITEN- DTBH, France
Ruby, Alain, Univ. Grenoble Alpes CEA LITEN DTBH, France
Bourasseau, Cyril, Univ. Grenoble Alpes CEA LITEN DTBH, France
Riu, Delphine , Univ. Grenoble Alpes CNRS Grenoble INP G2Elab, France
Berenguer, Christophe, Univ. Grenoble Alpes CNRS Grenoble INP* GIPSA-lab, France

Abstract

This paper proposes two different methods to deal with uncertainties in the design optimization of a renewable hybrid power system in order to enhance the decision-making. The first method considers the uncertainties after the optimization of the system. It permits to evaluate the impact of the uncertainties on the performances of the optimized system and through global sensitivity analysis to identify the most influential uncertain parameters. The second method integrates a Monte Carlo simulation in the optimization algorithm, allowing so to perform a robust optimization. Considered uncertainties include technical and economical parameters. These methods are applied to the electrical supply of a stand-alone application located in Nigeria, using PV as the main power source and including a hybrid energy storage: a batteries bank and a hydrogen chain (electrolyser, gas storage and fuel cell). The two methods are complementary and constitute a useful decision-making tool for dimensioning energy systems.

Table of content

Keywords

Publisher

AIM

Date

2019-06-03

Permanent link to this record

https://cired-repository.org/handle/20.500.12455/180
http://dx.doi.org/10.34890/351

ISSN

2032-9644

ISBN

978-2-9602415-0-1