Planning Integrated Energy Systems in Local Communities under Uncertainty

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CIRED 2019 - 2150.pdf (599.28 KB)

Paper number

2150

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Conference name

CIRED 2019

Conference date

3-6 June 2019

Conference location

Madrid, Spain

Peer-reviewed

Yes

Short title

Convener

Authors

SUN, Wei, University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
YANG, Jingjie, University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
HARRISON, Gareth, University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom

Abstract

This paper develops an optimal planning method for local energy system (LES) based on energy hub model, considering uncertainty quantification with global sensitivity analysis (GSA) towards robust design. First, a deterministic planning optimization is conducted to acquire the basic case of installation decisions for LES. Second, uncertainty analysis was carried out based on deterministic results, with proper distribution of variation for uncertainty parameters introduced and large size sample collected with Monte Carlo method. Finally, GSA is conducted by calculating Sobol Index for each uncertainty sources to carry out quantitative investigation in terms of uncertainty impact on planning results. A case study for the optimal planning of a practical village in Northern Scotland is provided to illustrate the application of the proposed framework.

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Publisher

AIM

Date

2019-06-03

Published in

CIRED 2019 Conference

Permanent link to this record

https://cired-repository.org/handle/20.500.12455/752
http://dx.doi.org/10.34890/977

ISSN

2032-9644

ISBN

978-2-9602415-0-1