Bottom Up Approach for the Prediction of the Deployment of Distributed Energy Resources

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Paper number
0276
Working Group Number
Conference name
CIRED 2018 Ljubljana Workshop
Conference date
7 - 8 June 2018
Conference location
Ljubljana, Slovenia
Peer-reviewed
Yes
Short title
Convener
Authors
Pohl, Oliver, Schleswig-Holstein Netz AG, Germany
Sowa, Torsten, Schleswig-Holstein Netz AG, Germany
Pletzer, Tobias, Schleswig-Holstein Netz AG, Germany
Tao, Xiaohu, Schleswig-Holstein Netz AG, Germany
Rose, Maximilian, Schleswig-Holstein Netz AG, Germany
Abstract
This paper presents a novel approach for the prediction of the deployment of distributed energy resources (DERs), e.g. photovoltaic (PV), in the distribution grid. A Markov chain model is defined to predict the spatiotemporal evolution of DERs. The predictor is trained with extensive data sets of PV deployment as well as geographic grid data. The prediction performance is validated on real data and found to be superior to standard Monte Carlo prediction. In a case study it is shown how DER prediction can be used for grid planning and quantification of self-sufficiency of regional energy communities.
Table of content
Keywords
Publisher
AIM
Date
2018-06-07
Permanent link to this record
https://www.cired-repository.org/handle/20.500.12455/1269
http://dx.doi.org/10.34890/452
ISSN
2032-9628
ISBN
978-2-9602415-1-8