Bottom Up Approach for the Prediction of the Deployment of Distributed Energy Resources

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CIRED 2018 Ljubljana WS - 0276 - 21043.pdf (982.11 KB)

Paper number

0276

Working Group Number

Conference name

CIRED 2018 Ljubljana Workshop

Conference date

7 - 8 June 2018

Conference location

Ljubljana, Slovenia

Peer-reviewed

Yes

Short title

Convener

Authors

Pohl, Oliver, Schleswig-Holstein Netz AG, Germany
Sowa, Torsten, Schleswig-Holstein Netz AG, Germany
Pletzer, Tobias, Schleswig-Holstein Netz AG, Germany
Tao, Xiaohu, Schleswig-Holstein Netz AG, Germany
Rose, Maximilian, Schleswig-Holstein Netz AG, Germany

Abstract

This paper presents a novel approach for the prediction of the deployment of distributed energy resources (DERs), e.g. photovoltaic (PV), in the distribution grid. A Markov chain model is defined to predict the spatiotemporal evolution of DERs. The predictor is trained with extensive data sets of PV deployment as well as geographic grid data. The prediction performance is validated on real data and found to be superior to standard Monte Carlo prediction. In a case study it is shown how DER prediction can be used for grid planning and quantification of self-sufficiency of regional energy communities.

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Keywords

Publisher

AIM

Date

2018-06-07

Published in

CIRED 2018 Ljubljana Workshop on Microgrids and Local Energy Communities

Permanent link to this record

https://www.cired-repository.org/handle/20.500.12455/1269
http://dx.doi.org/10.34890/452

ISSN

2032-9628

ISBN

978-2-9602415-1-8