Development of Electricity Demand Estimation Modelin Distribution Network Based on Grid-Square Statistics

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CIRED 2019 - 1419.pdf (324.04 KB)

Paper number

1419

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Conference name

CIRED 2019

Conference date

3-6 June 2019

Conference location

Madrid, Spain

Peer-reviewed

Yes

Short title

Convener

Authors

Kunii, Yasuyuki, Chubu Electric Power Co.-Inc., Japan
Takemura, Junzou, Chubu Electric Power Co. Inc., Japan
Matsuki, Tetsuya, Nagoya University, Japan
Imanaka, Masaki, Nagoya University, Japan
Kurimoto, Muneaki, Nagoya University, Japan
Sugimoto, Shigeyuki, Nagoya University, Japan
Kato, Takeyoshi, Nagoya University, Japan

Abstract

In order to realize effective asset management of a number of distribution networks, utilization status of individual network should be evaluated by taking into account not only the current situation but also the future situation. As a first step for this purpose, this study proposes a model to estimate the time-series of electricity demand for a year in arbitrary distribution network and examines the usefulness of the proposed model. The model is based on the publically available statistics. The aggregated electricity demand in each distribution network is calculated by determining the service territory based on map information. This study evaluates the accuracy of estimated model by comparing the estimated demand with observed demand for typical distribution networks. As an example of application of proposed model, the residual load characteristics in the case of high penetration of photovoltaic power generation and increased electrification ratio of energy demand is evaluated for various distribution networks in the Chubu region, Japan.

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Publisher

AIM

Date

2019-06-03

Published in

CIRED 2019 Conference

Permanent link to this record

https://cired-repository.org/handle/20.500.12455/409
http://dx.doi.org/10.34890/636

ISSN

2032-9644

ISBN

978-2-9602415-0-1