Planning Integrated Energy Systems in Local Communities under Uncertainty

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Paper number
2150
Working Group Number
Conference name
CIRED 2019
Conference date
3-6 June 2019
Conference location
Madrid, Spain
Peer-reviewed
Yes
Short title
Convener
Authors
SUN, Wei, University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
YANG, Jingjie, University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
HARRISON, Gareth, University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
Abstract
This paper develops an optimal planning method for local energy system (LES) based on energy hub model, considering uncertainty quantification with global sensitivity analysis (GSA) towards robust design. First, a deterministic planning optimization is conducted to acquire the basic case of installation decisions for LES. Second, uncertainty analysis was carried out based on deterministic results, with proper distribution of variation for uncertainty parameters introduced and large size sample collected with Monte Carlo method. Finally, GSA is conducted by calculating Sobol Index for each uncertainty sources to carry out quantitative investigation in terms of uncertainty impact on planning results. A case study for the optimal planning of a practical village in Northern Scotland is provided to illustrate the application of the proposed framework.
Table of content
Keywords
Publisher
AIM
Date
2019-06-03
Permanent link to this record
https://cired-repository.org/handle/20.500.12455/752
http://dx.doi.org/10.34890/977
ISSN
2032-9644
ISBN
978-2-9602415-0-1