Development of a Bottom-up Scenario Analysis Network Planning Tool

Abstract

The technical and societal changes brought forth by the energy transition require distribution system operators to be able to swiftly simulate and assess the impact of multiple future scenarios on the networks. A bottom-up scenario analysis tool was developed to be able to automate this impact assessment for the electricity distribution networks. The scenario tool diversifies high-level scenarios to local specific scenarios, and subsequently uses stochastic models to evaluate the loading and voltages in the network. Load profiles are built up from individual connections and aggregated up, to achieve a consistent simulation from the LV cable level up to the high voltage substations. Using the proposed methodology forecasts can be made on the timing, location and probability of bottlenecks, for a given scenario.