Impact of Prosumer Growth on Flexible DER Through Curtailment Assessment

Abstract

Across Europe Distribution System Operators (DSOs) are increasingly looking to harness network flexibility and provide more efficient network investments, lowering network costs for consumers. DSOs require a robust method of evaluating the benefit of flexibility actions, and the time-varying impact of prosumer growth is a critical input to this process. This paper presents the outputs of a collaborative study that explores the impact of growth in domestic Low Carbon Technology (LCT) in terms of network constraint emergence and harnessing flexibility.Through the application of the curtailment assessment methodology to network development scenarios (reflecting different growth rates and forms of LCT), the studies present the impact of domestic LCT growth on the frequency and magnitude of network constraint events, ultimately reflecting the scale of flexibility required to manage constraints.Comparative evaluation of the study outputs highlights the importance of modelling developments on the low voltage (LV) network, even where studies are focused on medium voltage (MV) or high voltage (HV) constraints. The two presented methods: time-series prosumer growth modelling and constraint analysis are of great relevance for DSOs. The value presented by the methods reflects a required development in network planning and design processes as DSOs look to respond to, and harness, greater levels of flexibility on networks and accommodate greater volumes of low-carbon technology. This can result in the more efficient utilisation of existing network capacity and deferral or avoidance of expensive grid reinforcement.