Predicting the impacts of the major disturbances for better resource management and situational awareness

Abstract

This paper will present a method and a tool to help with the resource allocation in major disturbance situations based on system made prediction. Prediction algorithm uses network information from network information system and combines it with the latest weather forecast data available. This tool predicts the amount of medium- and low-voltage faults in defined geographical service areas based on weather forecast, technical information from the network, fault statistics, fault repairing time and environmental conditions. Fault forecast is introduced for the next 3, 6, 12 and 24 hours.Predicted number of faults to the given hour determines the needed resources in given areas before weather impact. up to date prediction helps to plan the moving of resources in timely fashion to right areas but also improves DSO’s own resource planning and customer information. With the tool it is easy to plan the responsible areas, the number of operators and customer service professionals for the next following hours. Serving customers with the correct estimated fault fixing time is easier because of the future rush hours on the field are visible.