Uncertainty sensitivity assessment on the optimization of the design and operation of complex energy systems: two complementary approaches

Abstract

This paper proposes two different methods to deal with uncertainties in the design optimization of a renewable hybrid power system in order to enhance the decision-making. The first method considers the uncertainties after the optimization of the system. It permits to evaluate the impact of the uncertainties on the performances of the optimized system and through global sensitivity analysis to identify the most influential uncertain parameters. The second method integrates a Monte Carlo simulation in the optimization algorithm, allowing so to perform a robust optimization. Considered uncertainties include technical and economical parameters. These methods are applied to the electrical supply of a stand-alone application located in Nigeria, using PV as the main power source and including a hybrid energy storage: a batteries bank and a hydrogen chain (electrolyser, gas storage and fuel cell). The two methods are complementary and constitute a useful decision-making tool for dimensioning energy systems.