Baselines for evaluating demand response in the EcoGrid 2.0 project

Abstract

To verify delivery of demand response (DR) at low- and medium-voltage levels, forecasts of consumption assuming no DR, hereafter called a baseline, are required. In this paper, we show how a baseline is made, investigate some of its use cases, and use it to evaluate real-world demand response activations in the EcoGrid 2.0 project. EcoGrid 2.0 is a demonstration of aggregators controlling the heat pumps and electric heating in 800 houses in Denmark and bidding this DR into TSO and DSO test markets. Preliminary analysis of the DR available in the project, using baselines, shows significant flexibility: residential demand can be reduced by up to 40% or increased by 200% for one hour, albeit with a high level of uncertainty in the delivery.