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    Study on Probability Distribution of Photovoltaic Power Fluctuations at Multi-time Scales

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    CIRED 2018 Ljubljana WS - 0266 - 20862.pdf (792.8Kb)
    Paper number
    0266
    Conference name
    CIRED 2018 Ljubljana Workshop
    Conference date
    7 - 8 June 2018
    Conference location
    Ljubljana, Slovenia
    Peer-reviewed
    Yes
    Metadata
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    Authors
    Luo, Ling, EPRI, State Grid Shanghai Municipal Electric Power Company, China
    fang, chen, EPRI, State Grid Shanghai Municipal Electric Power Company, China
    Yang, Yong, Shanghai university of electric power, China
    Li, Chunyang, Shanghai university of electric power, China
    Li, Fen, Shanghai university of electric power, China
    Zhang, Peng, EPRI, State Grid Shanghai Municipal Electric Power Company, China
    Abstract
    By analyzing the probability distribution function (p.d.f) of photovoltaic (PV) power, the influence of randomness and uncertainty of PV power fluctuation on the operation of power system can be effectively reduced. It will be beneficial to improve the PV grid-connected penetration. In this paper, the generalized Gaussian distribution, the finite student t-mixture model and other models are utilized to analyze the power fluctuation characteristics under multiple time scales, based on a large amount of data gathered from a distributed PV station. Firstly, the study shows that generalized Gaussian distribution performs best to describe the probability distribution of PV power variation and the average power variation under 10~15-min time scales while Gaussian mixture model performs best under 30~60-min time scales. Further, a model based on the relationship between the variability of hourly PV energy production and global solar radiation is proposed, which can be used for quantitative analysis of the energy production variability of PV stations.
    Publisher
    AIM
    Date
    2018-06-07
    Published in
    • CIRED 2018 Ljubljana Workshop on Microgrids and Local Energy Communities
    Permanent link to this record
    https://www.cired-repository.org/handle/20.500.12455/1263
    http://dx.doi.org/10.34890/441
    ISSN
    2032-9628
    ISBN
    978-2-9602415-1-8

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